Written By: Sardar Tahir Ali
Iran Saudia relationship has remained under an eclipse ever since the Iranian revolution of 1979 which the Saudis saw as an imminent threat to their monarchial rule with the fall of the Shah of Iran. probably the best example of an absolute dictatorial monarchy not only in Iran but in the region as a whole. Saudis also saw the new revolutionary regime in Iran as a threat to their over all leadership status in the Islamic world being the custodians of the holy house of Allah , in Mecca. It was felt by the Saudis that Iran offered another variant of Islam, a progressive one compared to their’s , one that was opposed to being servile to hegemonic, colonial powers of the world, which could serve to attract the Muslims to their ideology.
Meanwhile Iran had its own axes to grind with the Saudis. The eight year old Iran Iraq war imposed on Iran while the Iranian revolution was still in it’s infancy, was seen by them as having the support of not only the US but also the monarchial Arab states led by Saudi Arabia who at the time were actively funding the Iraqi dictator Saddam to bring about the down fall of the nascent Iranian revolution. The war which resulted in a stalemate ultimately with Iranian rag tag army blunting the Iraqi army on all fronts resulted in Saudia getting even further closer to the US and all to the discomfort of the new government in Iran who saw the US as a Satanic power “Shaitan e Buzurg” bent on undoing the revolution.
While these developments on the political front were taking place at a rapid pace in the region there were other developments on the chess board too which served to distance the two regional heavy weights further apart. The massacre of the Iranian pilgrims during Hajj season in Saudia Arabia was seen as a big blow to the Iranian national esteem.and that too during Hajj, a necessary concomitant of a Muslims obligations. This ugly incident on Saudi soil caused further bad blood between the two countries.
It is in this backdrop that we see the western powers as being ill at ease on seeing the ice thawing between these two poles of the Islamic world. The entrance of new actors like China and Russia on the middle Eastern stage has not been with out its effects on regional politics too.
The Saudis failure to bring a favorable and conclusive end to it’s years old war on Yemen with the active support of the US have not borne any fruits , on the contrary the Saudi expenditure to sustain the war have resulted in the Saudis asking the world bank for loans for the first time in it’s history. The ever increasing differences between the Saudis & the Bidden administration in the US have gradually pushed the Saudis to look for powerful allies providing them the much needed security umbrella from emerging world powers like China & Russia in the region.The Saudis also see the survival of the Asad reqime in Syria as an example of the gradual weakening and loss of the US power in the reqion while simultaneously highlighting the increasing influence and power of the anti US camp in the reqion of which Iran is a very important constituent.
The ever growing power of the Chinese on the geo political front coupled with it’s economic might and it’s very close relationship with Iran has forced the Saudis to revise their foreign policy vis a vis the Iranians. The Chinese on their part have not been slow in realizing this opportunity to gain a foothold in the middle east , a reqion full of energy resources , something which the Chinese would stand in need of in future to peddle their economy to assume the role of the sole economic power of the world soon. It is in this backdrop that the Chinese have been actively persuing to ensure a rapprochement between these two powerful reqional actors i.e Iran & Saudi.
If this rapprochement is successfully concluded as it appears to be, it will not only sound the death knell for the US hegemony in the oil rich middle East but also deny it a meaningful place in the affairs of the Islamic world thereby restricting it’s role as a world power on the geo political scene too. In other words any loss of the US power would automatically mean a gain for & strengthening of the Chinese influence, Power etc in a very important region of the world and thus enhance it’s image as a replacement of the US as a super power.
This new rapprochement will also serve the long held ambition of China to dominate the world economically through it’s now famous “Road & Belt” initiative , giving access to it towards the African continent which has some of the richest resources in gold , lithium and diamonds etc, a continent which is seething at the moment with anti west/ US sentiments as witnessed presently in Niger , Barkino Fasso etc. The African continent especially North Africa is not only geographically contingent to the middle East but also has strong ties to the middle East through religious affinity as Islam is the common religion in both besides the linguistic and cultural affinity as most of the countries in this part of Africa have Arabic as a common spoken language and the social norms & customs are identical to the ones in the middle east. With access to the rich resources of the African continent , the Chinese would definitely emerge as the unchallenged Super power of the world , thereby altering the course of events in a significant part of the world and thereby reducing the role of the US and it’s hegemony on world affairs effectively. This would also signal an end to the mutual fratricide in the Islamic world thereby giving it a much more stronger voice in moulding the world opinion to it’s own benefit vis a vis it’s common enemy i.e Israel besides the resources lost to mutual infighting could be dedicated to improving the life style of it’s people through development of the infra structure, industries, scientific research etc in the region through the help of the Chinese who have significant experience in this field.
