Azerbaijan (TNS) Political Analyst in Azerbaijan, research fellow at the Institute for Development and Diplomacy of ADA University | PhD Student in National Security, Renmin University of China
Six years after Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War, the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus has undergone a fundamental transformation. The military developments of 2020, the restoration of Azerbaijan’s full sovereignty over Garabagh in September 2023, and subsequent diplomatic initiatives have reshaped the regional balance of power and created new conditions for political and economic cooperation.
November 8, 2026, marked the sixth anniversary of Azerbaijan’s Victory Day. President Ilham Aliyev addressed the nation from Khankendi, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Garabagh and held talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart in Shusha. Both events highlighted the strategic priorities of Azerbaijan’s post-war policy: consolidating sovereignty, maintaining national security, strengthening international partnerships and pursuing regional stability.
The 44-day war of 2020 changed the regional status quo that had persisted for nearly three decades. Azerbaijan regained control over substantial territories, including Shusha, liberated on November 8. The subsequent trilateral statement of November 10 provided for the return of Aghdam, Kalbajar and Lachin districts. In September 2023, Azerbaijan established full control over Garabagh, bringing the previous territorial and military configuration to an end.
Despite nearly three decades of unsuccessful peace negotiations and Armenia’s extensive military fortifications, the Azerbaijani army continued its advance during the 44-day war in 2020, ultimately forcing Armenia to capitulate. Azerbaijan achieved the withdrawal of Armenian forces demanded by four UN Security Council resolutions adopted in 1993.
In his anniversary address, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that not a single Azerbaijani soldier had deserted during the 44-day war, underscoring the discipline of the armed forces and the importance of national unity. He attributed Azerbaijan’s victory to years of economic development, military modernization, strong state institutions and consistent political leadership. Particular attention was given to Azerbaijanism as a national ideology uniting the country’s diverse ethnic and religious communities through civic solidarity. President Aliyev also stressed the importance of preserving Azerbaijan’s political, economic and military independence as a foundation for its future security and development.
These statements reflect a national security strategy based on deterrence and institutional resilience. Azerbaijan’s experience illustrates how sustained investment in defense capabilities, economic resources and strategic planning can influence the regional balance of power. The next challenge is to ensure that these achievements contribute to lasting stability.
President Erdoğan’s visit to Shusha reinforced the strategic significance of the Türkiye–Azerbaijan alliance. The two countries signed the Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations in June 2021, establishing a framework for expanded cooperation in defense, security, transportation and economic development. During their joint statements on November 8, both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to bilateral cooperation and regional peace.
The partnership has implications beyond military security. Azerbaijan and Türkiye occupy important positions along energy and transportation routes linking the Caspian region with Europe. Projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor, the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway and the Middle Corridor demonstrate the growing importance of their cooperation for Eurasian connectivity.
Another major priority remains the reconstruction of Garabagh and Eastern Zangezur. According to Azerbaijani government figures released in October 2026, approximately 28 billion manats had been allocated to reconstruction and development projects. In his anniversary address, President Aliyev stated that around 97,000 people were living, working or studying in the liberated territories. New roads, residential settlements, energy infrastructure and public facilities are contributing to their reintegration into Azerbaijan’s economy. However, landmine contamination, employment creation and private investment remain important challenges for sustainable development.
Diplomatic developments have also reshaped the region’s political environment. On August 8, 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Washington at the invitation of US President Donald Trump. The summit resulted in a joint declaration signed by Aliyev and Pashinyan and witnessed by Trump. The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia also initialed the agreed text of a peace agreement, marking a significant step toward the normalization of bilateral relations. The proposed TRIPP also introduced new possibilities for regional transportation connections.
Although the peace agreement has yet to be formally signed, the Washington process represents an important step toward normalization. Its implementation could strengthen regional connectivity, facilitate economic cooperation and reduce the risks of renewed confrontation.
These developments are taking place amid broader geopolitical changes. Türkiye has consolidated its role as Azerbaijan’s strategic ally, Russia’s regional position has evolved, and the United States has become more directly involved in diplomatic efforts. Meanwhile, the European Union and China maintain growing economic interests in transportation, energy and connectivity across the South Caucasus.
For Azerbaijan, its geographical position between the Caspian and Black Seas offers opportunities to strengthen its role as a regional transport hub. The development of the Middle Corridor, together with potential new connections through the South Caucasus, could further integrate the region into international trade networks.
Six years after the 2020 war, Azerbaijan has entered a new stage of its development. The restoration of territorial sovereignty, expansion of strategic partnerships and progress in reconstruction have strengthened its regional position. The central challenge now lies in translating these achievements into sustainable economic growth, diplomatic normalization and long-term security.
